Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 14.251605 17.395372 20.908570 25.102303 29.947730 35.345611 41.787978
2025-03-23 9.974694 14.085812 19.207716 25.951797 34.482392 44.793142 58.064634
2025-03-30 7.178032 11.447299 17.256775 25.511475 36.682189 50.999489 70.423616
2025-04-06 5.908331 10.413415 16.993959 26.913406 41.036449 59.932274 86.552354
2025-04-13 4.176607 8.237488 14.649722 24.943219 40.390953 61.978207 93.549982
2025-04-20 3.419513 7.407005 14.116026 25.435705 43.127793 68.678262 107.101160
2025-04-27 2.875096 6.801867 13.807045 26.167624 46.190562 75.943385 121.763627
2025-05-04 2.475465 6.363458 13.684914 27.136601 49.629645 83.896028 137.763781
2025-05-11 2.091100 5.854934 13.340462 27.654273 52.338346 90.851541 152.588303
2025-05-18 1.700755 5.225445 12.655285 27.466584 53.828012 95.963362 164.838034
2025-05-25 1.314600 4.486706 11.617956 26.488295 53.857026 98.722463 173.558629
2025-06-01 1.053284 3.973574 10.944087 26.086113 54.801867 102.936296 184.655485
2025-06-08 0.736046 3.210775 9.638141 24.406224 53.563881 103.904935 191.373223
2025-06-15 0.620242 3.005617 9.579836 25.277342 57.120582 113.186184 212.093346
2025-06-22 0.469255 2.606534 8.955112 24.849037 58.165606 118.217063 226.083805
2025-06-29 0.414681 2.531369 9.143670 26.221959 62.790254 129.701292 251.276409
2025-07-06 0.271362 2.001840 7.962566 24.292910 60.668979 129.091950 256.038852
2025-07-13 0.221155 1.849140 7.816843 24.775060 63.469597 137.472353 276.491887
2025-07-20 0.184539 1.738329 7.771105 25.491687 66.805318 146.988854 299.280884
2025-07-27 0.157695 1.661670 7.816187 26.440547 70.698966 157.719298 324.592594
2025-08-03 0.128650 1.545314 7.698653 26.947528 73.663233 166.826716 347.357140
2025-08-10 0.097083 1.375142 7.343109 26.763711 75.075789 173.026146 365.141160
2025-08-17 0.066057 1.159276 6.743637 25.805685 74.644069 175.608645 376.460620